In December 2025, Russia's irrecoverable battlefield losses - killed and seriously wounded - began exceeding monthly recruitment figures for the first time. American analyst Michael Kofman documents this turning point in a Foreign Affairs article published February 16, 2026.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman draws on open-source data and firsthand field observations to map out Russia's deteriorating manpower trajectory.
Throughout 2025, Russia was recruiting between 30,000 and 35,000 soldiers per month - but the entire intake went toward replacing battlefield losses rather than expanding the force. By year's end, even that replacement was falling short. "By December, irrecoverable losses (killed and seriously wounded) began to exceed monthly recruitment, which had also declined," Kofman writes.
For context: from the 2022 invasion through 2025, the Russian army grew from roughly 900,000 to approximately 1.3 million personnel. In 2022-2024, 30% of new recruits were used to build new formations - that reserve no longer exists.
Kofman warns that individual units will increasingly suffer from lower manning levels and internal imbalances as replacing combat losses grows harder. Recruit quality is also falling - a factor he links to rising desertion rates in 2025. He cautions against premature conclusions, however: "Past predictions that Russia would exhaust its supplies of manpower, ammunition, and equipment proved incorrect."
If current attrition rates hold, Moscow may be forced to reduce offensive tempo or cut back the number of axes it pushes in 2026.