If opposition leader Peter Magyar wins Hungary's April 12 elections and Viktor Orban allows the results to stand, the new government can set the country on a path back toward democracy. But if Orban retains power, he will seek to deny his opponents another chance like this one - and that will mean "pushing Hungary further toward the consolidation of autocracy," according to a Foreign Affairs analysis.
The warning comes from researchers Balint Madlovics and Balint Magyar at Central European University's Democracy Institute, who published their assessment days before the vote, as "Hvylya" reports.
The analysts warn that the regime may go to significant lengths to secure victory. Orban could postpone the vote, annul results by claiming foreign interference - a narrative "his campaign is already laying the groundwork for" - or rewrite constitutional rules to constrain a new government. The Washington Post has reported that Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto regularly briefed Russia on high-level EU negotiations, and Russian secret services have floated the possibility of "false-flag operations to instill fear ahead of the election."
The stakes extend well beyond Hungary's borders. Under Orban, the country has become "Russia's most valuable subversive asset within NATO and the EU," using its veto power to obstruct foreign policy and security decisions. A victorious Orban could deepen ties with Moscow, putting Hungary on a path toward what the analysts describe as "Belarusization" - becoming a Russian client state with little realistic prospect of a pro-Western government. His success could also "galvanize other right-wing populists and aspiring criminal autocrats" from Georgia and Slovakia to the United States.
Yet the regime's delayed response to Magyar's rise narrows Orban's room to maneuver. With such a large and mobilized opposition, overtly autocratic steps risk backfiring. The security forces "would likely refuse to suppress large-scale protests should the vote be postponed or annulled," the analysts write. The April 12 vote, they conclude, is "Hungary's best chance in 16 years to choose democracy over autocracy."
"Hvylya" previously analyzed how Orban trails his rival by 15 points despite backing from both Trump and Putin.