The United States produces more crude oil and petroleum products than it consumes, yet American households and energy-intensive industries have been hit hard by the price surge triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has shattered the assumption that energy superpower status eliminates geopolitical vulnerability.

In a new analysis for Foreign Affairs, Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O'Sullivan trace how that assumption took root. Two decades ago, the U.S. imported roughly 60 percent of its oil. President George W. Bush warned in 2006 that "America is addicted to oil." The shale revolution then made the country the world's largest producer and a major exporter, as detailed by Foreign Affairs.

That abundance reshaped Washington's strategic calculus. The Obama administration tightened restrictions on Iranian oil partly because rapid U.S. production growth could offset the lost supply and limit upward pressure on prices. Over time, the Middle East came to seem less central to American national security. As recently as last December, the Trump administration's National Security Strategy declared that as U.S. oil production increases, "America's historic reason for focusing on the Middle East will recede."

The Iran crisis has exposed the flaw in that logic. Because gasoline is priced in a global market, keeping crude at home does little to insulate consumers from price shocks. Restricting exports might briefly lower domestic prices, but it would also discourage production and refining at a time when more supply is needed, undermine U.S. credibility as a supplier and invite retaliation from trading partners.

Bordoff and O'Sullivan warn against banning exports of gasoline and other refined products, arguing it "would cause even greater collateral damage, since refiners would cut back their output, further curbing domestic supply." American producers may benefit from higher prices, but the household impact remains severe regardless of how much the country extracts.

The signing of the Paris climate agreement in 2015 had further buoyed expectations that oil geopolitics might fade with the clean energy transition. Leaders argued that replacing fossil fuels with renewables would reduce dependence on foreign fuel and expand freedom of action in foreign policy. The Iran crisis has undercut both promises at once.

Also read how every Tomahawk fired at Iran weakens deterrence elsewhere - and Beijing knows it.