The U.S. military assumed that once Iran's senior leadership was eliminated in the opening hours of the campaign, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would fall apart. It did not. Weeks into the conflict, the IRGC continues to threaten commercial shipping with cruise missiles, drones, fast attack boats, and the possibility of mines - keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to unescorted traffic.
Retired Admiral Jamie Foggo and Vice Admiral John "Fuzzy" Miller laid out the problem on the War on the Rocks podcast, "Hvylya" reports.
Foggo said the planners likely made incorrect assumptions about how quickly the IRGC would collapse. "There was an assumption that once the leadership went away, the IRGC would fall apart, and they haven't done that," he said. The IRGC has proven its command structure is "diversified" enough to continue launching strikes even after losing senior leaders.
Miller explained the depth of the threat. Iran can attack ships with anti-ship cruise missiles, over 6,000 Shahed drones deployed so far, small boats armed with explosively formed projectiles, and potentially mines. "If you want to be sure enough that the insurance companies will say it's safe and that you can put civilian mariners through there, that's a hard problem," he said.
Foggo pointed to former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's recent essay in Foreign Affairs as evidence that the pressure campaign is inflicting real pain. Zarif recommended that the IRGC negotiate with Washington and reopen the strait - a signal, Foggo argued, that would not have appeared without high-level approval. "Obviously they are feeling the pain," Foggo said.
Gas prices in the United States have climbed above five dollars a gallon, and the Houthi disruption of the Red Sea has removed another nine percent of global oil supply from secure transit routes.