Viktor Orban's 16-year hold on Hungary rested on three pillars: economic growth financed by EU transfers, systematic suppression and co-optation of the opposition, and an increasingly widespread belief that he simply could not be beaten. All three have cracked, according to researchers Balint Madlovics and Balint Magyar.

The two analysts at Central European University's Democracy Institute laid out their assessment in a Foreign Affairs analysis published ahead of Hungary's April 12 elections, as "Hvylya" reports.

The economic foundation shook first. In December 2022, the EU froze more than half of Hungary's allocated funds over alleged rule-of-law violations. Combined with a sluggish post-pandemic recovery and what the analysts call "anticompetitive policies," the economy stagnated while inflation surged into double digits. The budget squeeze hit hardest at the bottom of Orban's patronage network: "as the budget tightened, low-level members lost access to resources as Orban channeled funds upward."

The opposition-suppression pillar buckled next. For years, the regime had neutralized dissent by infiltrating parties, imposing fines to liquidate others, and creating fake parties to split opposition votes. But mass protests erupted in early 2024 after revelations that a government-connected individual had received a presidential pardon in a child abuse case. A demonstration organized by social media influencers drew roughly 150,000 people - while the formal opposition's own rally mobilized only about 1,500.

The psychological pillar - what the analysts call "the myth of inevitability" - has eroded most dramatically. By March 2026, 47 percent of Hungarians expected opposition leader Peter Magyar's Tisza Party to win, versus 35 percent who anticipated a Fidesz victory. The regime's fearmongering propaganda has also lost its edge: whereas a third of opposition voters once believed the opposition would lead Hungary into war, now only about one percent do.

Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on why European intelligence agencies began publicly naming Russian operatives involved in Hungary's election.