Instead of trading land for security promises, two defense scholars have proposed a framework where Ukraine pledges permanent nonalignment and caps its forces, while Russia accepts deployment limits near Ukrainian territory - and both sides receive conditional Western assurances designed to hold the deal together.
Samuel Charap and Jennifer Kavanagh detail this comprehensive alternative in Foreign Affairs, as "Hvylya" reports. Under their proposal, Kyiv would formally pledge not to join any military alliance and declare caps on its forces "at levels that do not constrain its defensive capabilities but that limit its offensive ones." Ukraine would still dispute Russian occupation, but only through peaceful means.
The authors argue this would not leave Ukraine defenseless. A strategy built on fortifications, drones, mines, and sufficient air defense stockpiles would let Ukraine deter invasion without maintaining a massive standing army. "Ukraine would only need an army of modest size to make a future invasion too costly for the Kremlin to undertake," they write. Kyiv would remain free to develop its defense industry and receive Western military aid for short-range precision weapons.
In exchange, Moscow would accept limits on forces, missiles, and heavy weapons near Ukrainian territory and in occupied areas. Both sides would vow not to host foreign troops. The United States and NATO members could offer Russia a legally binding commitment - possibly through a UN Security Council resolution - to veto alliance enlargement eastward, so long as Russia does not reinvade.
For Ukraine, the West would codify commitments to provide air defenses, artillery rockets, and short-range munitions along a set timeline, and build stockpiles outside Ukraine for rapid deployment if aggression recurs. Charap and Kavanagh concede such negotiations would be extremely difficult. But they argue the current formula - land for guarantees - provides no real path to durable peace, while their approach at least confronts the underlying threat perceptions that sustain the war.
Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on Zelensky's response to US accusations and the details of ongoing security negotiations.