Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps looks to the Vietnam War for strategic inspiration, treating American domestic politics as the decisive battlefield rather than the military one.
Historian Niall Ferguson made the argument in a Free Press interview, noting that the IRGC's approach follows a pattern well established among anti-American revolutionary governments, "Hvylya" reports.
"The idea is now well enshrined in any anti-American revolutionary government that the United States, for all its military power, is vulnerable to domestic pressure, particularly if it can have an economic dimension to it," Ferguson said. The IRGC monitors American opinion polls, tracks the president's falling approval ratings, and calculates the inflation impact of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Ferguson argued that Iran believes it has broken through because Trump chose not to deploy ground forces to retake the strait. "The fact that he's not done that must be seen in Tehran as a tremendous win," he said. From that position, the IRGC can afford to play the waiting game that North Vietnam perfected: insist on maximalist demands, dogmatically and implacably, while watching the United States modify its own position under domestic economic pressure.
The North Vietnamese playbook involved presenting nine or ten non-negotiable points and simply waiting for Washington to make concessions. Ferguson predicted the same pattern would emerge if talks in Pakistan ever begin. "That North Vietnamese playbook is highly likely to be on display if the negotiations in Pakistan ever happen," he said.
Iran's ten-point peace plan demands total US military withdrawal from the Middle East, complete control of the strait, war reparations, and acceptance of its right to nuclear enrichment - terms Washington considers non-starters. Ferguson compared the gap between the two sides' positions to the stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks, where the war is now in its fifth year.