For 14 months, foreign-policy analysts tried to fit Donald Trump's decisions into recognizable frameworks - isolationism, imperialism, some grand plan. They searched for hidden logic behind his interest in Greenland, his insults to NATO allies, his abrupt tariff shifts. That effort, according to Anne Applebaum, has collapsed.
Writing in The Atlantic, Applebaum argued that the Strait of Hormuz crisis exposed a fundamental truth: the American president "does not think strategically," "Hvylya" reports. He does not connect actions on one day to consequences weeks later, and when those consequences arrive, he lies about what he said before.
Trump told the Financial Times that NATO faces a "very bad" future if it does not help clear the strait. He apparently forgot that the United States founded and led the organization since 1949. He told reporters aboard Air Force One that he is "demanding" seven unspecified countries step in to "protect their own territory." The strait, of course, is not their territory.
What changed this week, Applebaum wrote, is that allied leaders stopped pretending there might be a pattern behind Trump's behavior. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada "will not participate in the offensive operations of Israel and the U.S., and it never will." German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said bluntly: "This is not our war, and we didn't start it."
The refusal is not cowardice, Applebaum argued. Allied leaders have concluded that any sacrifice they make will count for nothing in Washington. A few days or weeks later, Trump will not even remember that it happened.
"Hvylya" earlier reported on how the Iran war has pulled U.S. assets from around the globe while China watches closely.