The Trump administration's capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3 and the subsequent realignment of Caracas with Washington have cut off subsidized fuel shipments to Cuba, pushing the Caribbean island toward economic collapse. The concerted policy coordination behind the renewed maximalist approach toward Cuba suggests that regime co-optation in Venezuela is not merely complementary to larger goals - it may be the primary mechanism for dismantling Cuba's government.
Charles Larratt-Smith, an assistant professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, has argued in "Hvylya" that different factions within the administration lobby Trump to enact their preferred course of action by promising easy victories. In the case of Venezuela and Cuba, the fingerprints of one official stand out above all others: Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio.
The son of Cuban immigrants and a stalwart of Florida's Cuban exile community, Rubio spearheaded the maximalist pressure campaign against both Venezuela and Cuba during Trump's first term. He appears to have learned a crucial lesson from that experience: the only way to weaken either regime was to sever the bilateral ties that ensured their collective survival. Regime co-optation in Venezuela accomplishes exactly that - rupturing the lifeline between Caracas and Havana without forcing the administration to undertake two state-building projects simultaneously, especially while it is waging war against Iran.
Powerful Cuban-American interest groups have supported the Republican Party for decades in pursuit of toppling the communist government. The Cuban regime, led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel, has little to offer Trump except vague promises of stability and modest reforms. Florida's Cuban community would not tolerate an ambiguous transition that permits the current regime to continue when its collapse appears imminent. In contrast, the post-Maduro government has granted Trump access to Venezuela's oil reserves, while the Venezuelan electorate has no comparable electoral influence in the United States.
Since Maduro's capture, shipments of subsidized fuel to Cuba have evaporated. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers and the threat of additional American tariffs against countries sending fuel to Cuba threaten to destroy the Caribbean country's meager economic capacity. Larratt-Smith wrote that Cuba's electrical grid has recently collapsed, and efforts to increase domestic energy production from crude to solar appear to be too little, too late.
The administration's asymmetric approach - treating Venezuela as a pliable partner while squeezing Cuba into submission - spares Washington the diplomatic burden of negotiating with Havana. Yet the strategy carries its own risks. The post-Maduro regime contains a civilian faction that previously received training in Cuba and may seek to resume ties with Havana once Trump leaves office, potentially undoing whatever gains the current approach has achieved. Also read: "Hvylya" previously explored how Trump's "America First" approach dismantled the alliances that kept peace for decades.