For 16 years, Hungary's prime minister has exerted influence far beyond what a leader of a country with fewer than 10 million people would normally command. Viktor Orban pioneered what the European parliament has called an "electoral autocracy" - a system that both borrowed from existing authoritarians and invented new methods for others to copy.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing the Financial Times editorial board, Orban's model of "state capture" drew from Vladimir Putin's playbook: packing public institutions with loyalists, steering contracts to friendly oligarchs who then buy up independent media and bankroll the ruling party. Hungary's squeeze on judicial independence was later replicated by Poland's Law and Justice party.
The most significant borrower, however, may be the American right. Critics have compared Project 2025, the blueprint for Donald Trump's second term, to a plan to replicate Orban's methods inside the U.S. government. Orban also built a far-right alliance in the European parliament - now its third-largest faction - that includes France's Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands' Geert Wilders, Spain's Vox, and Austria's Freedom Party.
Yet the system that impressed strongmen worldwide is now under pressure at home. The Financial Times chronicled how 13 men close to Orban's administration won a major share of Hungary's public contracts during his tenure. Faced with soaring living costs and economic stagnation, Hungarian voters are beginning to connect the premier's crony capitalism with their deteriorating public services.
Even if an opposition victory materializes, unpicking years of institutional capture would be a far longer process than winning a single election. Whether the vote can be considered truly fair remains an open question, given Fidesz's lock on traditional media and communications.
Also read: how Hungary dropped to last place in EU freedom rankings under Orban's rule.