Roughly 8,000 Russian veterans have already been convicted of crimes since 2022, including violent offenses, according to an investigation by independent outlet Novaya Gazeta - a figure that underscores the social risks of Moscow's mass recruitment drive and its failure to prepare for soldiers' return.
Dara Massicot, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has presented the findings in an analysis published by Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
The crime surge comes as Russia's front lines have been increasingly manned by convicts - an estimated 120,000 to 180,000 have joined the military since 2023 - soldiers with prewar criminal records, and men with substance abuse issues. Some returning veterans have committed new violent crimes or rejoined organized crime groups, including the Russian Mafia.
The pattern echoes Russia's experience with previous conflicts. Nearly 35 percent of Soviet veterans from the 1979-89 Afghan War displayed PTSD symptoms, and reintegration failures in the 1990s led to some joining organized crime. By the early 2000s, 100,000 veterans were in prison. The current generation of soldiers, likely to be called "Ukraintsy," risks following the same trajectory.
A Levada Center survey from September 2025 found that 40 percent of Russians expect an increase in crime and social conflict when soldiers return. Massicot writes that "even motivated and law-abiding Russian veterans are likely to encounter public stigma, apathy, and wariness" in this environment.
Between 137,000 and 300,000 Russian veterans have already been discharged, with the overall veteran population projected to exceed one million when the war ends.
Read more: A Failed 2025: Kofman Names Russia's Biggest Military Setbacks.