China's near-total silence on the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran may be the most consequential signal of the conflict so far, historian Niall Ferguson has warned. Unlike the "Wolf Warrior diplomacy" that had defined Beijing's posture in recent years, the Chinese government has offered almost no public commentary as American and Israeli forces dismantle Iran's military capabilities.
As reported by "Hvylya", Ferguson laid out his concerns during a GoodFellows panel at the Hoover Institution alongside economist John Cochrane and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster.
Ferguson argued that the war amounts to a "conscious flexing of American military might" aimed directly at Beijing. "Both in effect client states of Beijing, both suppliers of contraband sanctioned oil to China," he said of Venezuela and Iran, adding that "a part of the goal here is to communicate to the Chinese Communist Party: do not mess with America."
But the message may be producing the opposite of the intended effect. Ferguson warned that Chinese leaders could be asking themselves whether they are "next" - and whether they "should not hang around and wait for that preemptive strike." He pointed to a disturbing indicator: all Chinese military flights near Taiwan have stopped in recent months. "There are a bunch of explanations for this, none of them wholly compelling," he said.
McMaster acknowledged the risk but pushed back on the idea that China would act impulsively. The US still retains significant capabilities despite the expenditure of interceptors, he argued, and the destruction of Iran - along with the earlier action in Venezuela - has eliminated China's main platform in the Western Hemisphere and its leverage in the Middle East. "China's big entree in the Middle East was, 'Hey, I've got influence over the Iranians, you need me in the Middle East' - that's gone now," McMaster said.
Ferguson suggested a Taiwan crisis this year is unlikely given the lack of Chinese military leadership, but added: "Next year, I'm not so sure." He pointed to the 2028 Taiwan election as a potential inflection point for Beijing's decision-making.