Iran may be the conflict that exposes the fatal limits of Trump's approach to military force. Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, warns in Foreign Affairs that the operation represents "the most ambitious of Trump's foreign policy gambits to date" - and the one most likely to fail on its own terms.
As reported by "Hvylya", Fontaine's analysis in Foreign Affairs identifies the core problem: Trump is attempting to force regime change "in a country that is much larger and more populous than Iraq or Afghanistan, through an operation with no ground component and no obvious domestic allies, and in the face of an entrenched security apparatus."
The Trump doctrine has worked in smaller-stakes scenarios. Limited strikes on the Houthis led to a negotiated deal. Targeted operations removed Soleimani and destroyed nuclear facilities. The Venezuela intervention ousted Maduro personally, if not his regime. But Iran is a fundamentally different challenge - and the toolkit of airpower, special forces, and deliberate ambiguity may not be enough.
Fontaine outlines a range of nightmare scenarios - "from an IRGC-led military dictatorship to a descent into domestic chaos" - that he says is "wider than the happy possibility of a democratic uprising." If the Islamic Republic survives the assault, the United States will have expended enormous resources without achieving its stated goal. If it collapses, the aftermath could be worse than what it replaced.
The analyst predicts Trump will fall back on his signature move: redefining victory. If U.S. forces take significant casualties, if the public grows tired of the conflict, or if alternatives look worse than the current regime, "Trump could stop the fight. By claiming that the objective was, from the beginning, to simply weaken Iran and to ensure that it does not obtain a nuclear weapon, the president could, and likely would, declare victory."
But even this escape hatch carries a cost. Trump has already signaled that the United States will not own Iran's aftermath regardless of what happens. "Should it collapse, the Iranian people will need to pick up the pieces. If it endures, Washington will wrap up the fight and move on to other priorities." The approach, Fontaine concludes, does not prevent future conflict - it merely delays it.
Also read: Bombs Don't Build Oppositions: Foreign Affairs Analyst Dismantles Trump's Iran Regime Change Logic