President Trump may stop short of full regime change in Iran and instead pursue a deal similar to the one he struck in Venezuela - leaving the existing power structure partially intact in exchange for sweeping concessions, according to the Wall Street Journal.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a WSJ analysis by Greg Ip, Trump's conditions for Iran mirror his original demands: "an end to nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile development, and a halt to support for proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon."
The Venezuela model is already operational. After removing President Nicolas Maduro, Trump left Maduro's vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, in charge "in exchange for control of its oil exports and industry." An interim council now rules Iran while the country seeks a successor to the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The regime may see accepting American terms as "a less-bad option than a continuing air war and threat of domestic revolt."
Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners, warned that keeping new leaders cooperative requires sustained pressure. In Venezuela's case, that means "an armada parked off her coast." Iran would likely demand a similar - or greater - ongoing military commitment.
Ip draws a cautionary parallel: the U.S. drove Iraq from Kuwait in 1991, then stopped short of regime change. Instead, Washington maintained sanctions and no-fly zones before concluding that only regime change would end the threat - and invaded in 2003. It is "precisely the scenario Trump has sworn to avoid."
Also read: "Most of the People We Had in Mind Are Dead": Why Trump Faces a Leadership Vacuum in Iran