Russia faces the prospect of losing two of its most reliable geopolitical allies - Iran and Venezuela - while their potential return to full oil production threatens to cut into Moscow's own sales, according to the Wall Street Journal.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a WSJ analysis by Greg Ip, both countries "had been reliable allies to Russia in its continuing efforts to dilute American influence around the world." Both were also important sources of oil to China.
Iran and Venezuela together hold the first and fourth largest proven oil reserves globally. Before the 1979 revolution, Iran alone produced five to six million barrels a day. Their combined output once equaled Saudi Arabia's. A return to full production would flood the market with supply that directly competes with Russian exports.
There is, however, a potential silver lining for Moscow. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted that Russia "might benefit from China's loss of access to cheap, sanctioned oil." If Iran normalizes relations with the West, Beijing loses its discount pipeline - and may need to pay market prices, some of which could flow to Russian producers.
Still, the strategic picture looks bleak for the Kremlin. With Iran and Venezuela potentially exiting Russia's orbit, Moscow's ability to project influence through allied oil states shrinks dramatically. Russia would remain the only major adversarial oil power - but with diminished clout and fewer partners to lean on.
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