The Iran war has delivered a double blow to European security - an energy price shock that weakens the continent's economy and a political fracture that empowers forces seeking accommodation with Russia, Polish strategic analyst Piotr Kulpa said. European gas prices have already surged more than 50%, with Bloomberg reporting severe disruptions across energy markets.
In an interview with "Hvylya", Kulpa argued that the conflict has exposed the fundamental weakness of the US-led security architecture in the Gulf. Partner states operated under a deal: Washington guaranteed their security in exchange for cooperation. That guarantee has now cracked. "This is a manifestation of weakness," Kulpa said, pointing to Qatar's LNG shutdown after drone strikes and disruptions to Gulf oil production as evidence that American protection is no longer absolute.
The war has split Europe along predictable lines. Some countries refuse to get involved; others, like Spain, have openly opposed the United States. Kulpa warned that a successful US-Iran campaign would paradoxically strengthen anti-European political forces - Orban in Hungary, Le Pen in France, AfD in Germany. "If the war is successful, it will play into the hands of anti-European forces," he said. These movements share a common program: cutting deals with Russia at the expense of Central European sovereignty.
The economic pressure compounds the political risk. Europe is paying for the war through higher energy costs, while Russia collects the windfall. "Europe is weakened because the Middle East war drives up energy prices. Europe pays for this," Kulpa said. "The economic blow is incredible." Meanwhile, the war gives Putin leverage to push for negotiations on his terms, with a weakened and divided Europe unable to present a united front.
Kulpa sees the Intermarium concept - a security alliance of states between the Baltic and Black seas - as the only viable alternative. "The only alliances that work are alliances where the allies share the same risks," he said. Deepening ties between Poland, Ukraine, Scandinavia, and the Baltic states is the emerging third path. But it requires Central European societies to cross a psychological threshold they have so far refused to acknowledge: accepting that war is a real possibility, not someone else's problem.
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