Iran launched more than 1,200 missiles and drones during the first 48 hours of the current war with Israel and the United States — and this overwhelming volume is the core of Tehran's strategy, not a sign of desperation. Defense analysts Amos C. Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady argue that Iran is pursuing a deliberate attritional approach aimed at depleting allied interceptor stockpiles.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a Foreign Policy analysis, Tehran understands that the U.S. and Israeli theory of success depends on a quick, decisive strike campaign. Iran's counter-strategy is to play for time rather than operate on the attackers' timeline.
The logic is straightforward: every interceptor fired to stop an Iranian missile is one fewer interceptor available for future salvos. During the June 2025 conflict, Iran launched 631 missiles, of which around 500 reached Israeli airspace. Israel's claimed 86 percent interception rate came at enormous cost — Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile interceptors were running critically low, and the United States had to rush additional missile defense systems to the region.
Iran is facing its own race against time, however. According to Israeli military sources, 200 Iranian ballistic missile launchers have already been destroyed. But Fox and Gady note that the attackers' advantage in precision strikes is offset by the grinding dynamics of attrition that "have haunted conventional warfare for centuries."
The analysts draw a parallel with the Russia-Ukraine war, where both sides possess drones, long-range fire, and sophisticated command systems, yet technological sophistication has not produced rapid, decisive results. Instead, both have adopted strategies of exhaustion. Iran, the authors suggest, is betting on the same dynamic — that time and volume will matter more than precision and superiority.