Russia publicly claimed that China repositioned its satellites over Iran and fed intelligence to Tehran during the US-Israeli strikes. George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, argued this leak had nothing to do with helping Iran - and everything to do with driving a wedge between Washington and Beijing.
Friedman shared his analysis on the Talking Geopolitics podcast, as reported by "Hvylya".
"The Russians are very worried about the US and China reaching an accommodation," Friedman said. With a Trump-Xi summit scheduled for April and active economic negotiations underway, Moscow fears being left on the sidelines. Leaking the satellite story was a calculated move to poison the atmosphere before the meeting.
Friedman expressed deep skepticism about the practical value of any Chinese intelligence support. Even if Beijing did reposition satellites, Iran's communications infrastructure was likely destroyed in the opening hours of the strikes. "Are the Iranians in any position to receive the data or to transmit the data they get to forces?" he asked. "I think one thing the United States did above all else is knock out their communications."
China's own calculation makes direct confrontation with Washington unlikely at this moment, Friedman argued. "I doubt that they would want to take a very hostile stand to the United States at this point in their negotiations," he said. The potential cost - derailing economic talks - far outweighs any benefit from helping Iran. Months ago, before the current US-China diplomatic track took shape, "having an irritant at a low price was worth having for the Chinese." Now the equation has changed.
"I am not surprised that the Russians would be making this claim," Friedman concluded. Moscow cannot intervene militarily, so it plays information warfare instead - trying to ensure that its two most powerful rivals do not find common ground.
Also read: "The Three-Body Problem": Why the Strike on Iran Is Troubling News for Ukraine and a Gift to China