Contrary to expectations of gradual alignment, the past week brought a sharply new reality to Kyiv: the United States provided Ukraine with two draft documents that Washington views as the foundation for a future settlement and a new security system. Simultaneously, American officials arrived in Kyiv to deliver ultimatum deadlines and warnings regarding continued support.

On November 19, a group of American officials arrived in the capital, led by Secretary of the Army Daniel Driskoll - a longtime ally of US Vice President JD Vance. According to Western media reports, Donald Trump has appointed him his de facto "emissary" to advance the new settlement strategy.

As reported by RBK-Ukraine, during the three days of talks, Driskoll held a series of meetings with Ukraine’s political and military leadership, as well as with European diplomats. According to several sources, it was during these conversations that the American side made its harshest statements in recent memory.

Ultimatum Shifts Negotiation Dynamic

According to sources, on the first day of his arrival, Driskoll conveyed an extremely firm position to Kyiv: the US expects the proposed plan to be approved by November 27.

As one source recounts: "We were told directly: either you approve the document by the specified date, or the United States will cease aid—both military and intelligence. The message was unambiguous."

Later, Donald Trump publicly confirmed the hardline stance, stating that Ukraine is losing territory and that Thanksgiving "is a suitable moment" to agree on the terms. Simultaneously, the former president threatened the Kremlin with "very powerful" sanctions should it refuse.

Document No. 1: 28 Points to Outline the Future Settlement

The first document provided is an extended set of proposals on the structure of a possible settlement. It includes the 28 points previously published by the American outlet Axios. It outlines approaches to territorial control, the future security regime, issues of economic pressure, and the conditions for Russia's potential reintegration into global markets.

This document is not final. It has been the subject of negotiations between the Ukrainian and American delegations in Geneva, and, according to sources, has already undergone adjustments.

Document No. 2: 10-Year Security Guarantees Based on Article 5 Model

The second document is a draft "Framework Agreement on Security Guarantees for Ukraine." Formally, it is based on the principles of NATO's Article 5, but adapted for a bilateral model with the US.

Key provisions:

  • The US retains the right for the President to use military force and other support tools if the Russian Federation launches another armed attack on Ukraine.

  • US allies (NATO, as well as France, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, and Finland) are expected to act in sync with Washington.

  • The document provides for a 10-year term with the possibility of extension.

Like the 28-point plan, this framework agreement is a draft and may be modified as a result of further consultations.