Each Patriot missile intercepting an Iranian drone over the Persian Gulf is one fewer available to defend Taiwan - and Beijing is paying close attention. That was the blunt assessment from historian Niall Ferguson and former Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass, who warned that the Iran war is degrading America's strategic position in the Indo-Pacific at the worst possible time.
In a conversation on the Conversations with Coleman podcast, covered by "Hvylya", both analysts rejected the theory that the war serves as a signal of strength to China.
Haass was categorical. "This war has been good for China," he said. "The idea that the United States is depleting munitions once again - for at least the third time in a major way - US forces are focused on the greater Middle East rather than on Europe or the Indo-Pacific. This entire war is at odds with even this administration's national security strategy." He added that China's strategic petroleum reserve is "quite impressive" and Beijing has been disciplined about reducing its vulnerability to oil disruptions.
Ferguson acknowledged that nobody in the administration has claimed the war targets China - "they've explicitly denied that" - but raised a more unsettling question. "What we don't know is what President Xi is thinking at this point," he said. "Is there anybody in Beijing saying there's no better time than now to make a move against Taiwan? What would the United States do under those circumstances?"
The munitions problem is not theoretical. The US has now depleted precision missile stocks in three major engagements, and the people responsible for the Indo-Pacific within the administration "don't think that it's advantageous for us to deplete our already relatively small stock of certain categories of precision missiles," Ferguson said.
Haass predicted that if President Trump's planned visit to China goes ahead at the end of March, Beijing will use the war as leverage. "The Chinese are going to take his measure," he said, adding that the conflict gives Xi additional bargaining power in trade negotiations precisely because Washington is consumed by the Gulf.
Also read: "Eerie Silence": Ferguson Warns Why China's Quiet Response to Iran War Should Alarm Washington