The first Gulf War was short - Desert Storm lasted weeks. The second was supposed to be short too; it lasted eight years. The third, now underway against Iran, carries the same promise of speed and the same risk of metastasis. Historian Niall Ferguson placed the current conflict squarely in this pattern, warning that the most dangerous outcomes are always the ones nobody planned for.

Ferguson made the case on the Conversations with Coleman podcast alongside former Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass, as reported by "Hvylya".

"Wars are remarkably easy to start, much harder to stop," Ferguson said. "It was supposed to be short in 1914. It was supposed to be short in 2003. President Putin thought his war in Ukraine was going to be short. It's now in its fifth year." The pattern, he argued, is not coincidental - it reflects a recurring failure of strategic imagination.

Ferguson pointed to a specific historical parallel. Nick Lambert's book "The Warlords" documents how Britain's government in 1914 failed to grasp the importance of the Black Sea straits to the global economic system. The Strait of Hormuz, Ferguson argued, presents the same kind of blind spot. "The second, third, and fourth order consequences of a military action that disrupts a major trade artery, a choke point like the Strait of Hormuz, are almost incalculable." It is the unintended consequences that define the outcome.

The consequences are already materializing. The energy shock exceeds what followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. US precision missile stocks are depleting. Russia benefits from higher oil prices and reduced sanctions pressure. China watches its strategic position improve in the Indo-Pacific. "It's a recurrent feature of history that strategic decisions get taken and then you find out that there was something you hadn't thought of," Ferguson said.

Haass drew the Iraq parallel more explicitly: "A lot of this, almost like the Iraq war, is about what were people thinking would happen after this began. And I think there will be a lot of grounds for Niall and other historians to look closely at this."

Also read: Petraeus on Iran: "We Haven't Learned Enough From Ukraine"