Two Overlooked Factors Make a Great-Power War Far Less Likely Than Pundits Claim

A senior defense analyst has identified two structural factors in the current international system that make a direct great-power war significantly less likely than political commentators suggest: nuclear deterrence and the bipolar distribution of power between the United States and China.

Jo Inge Bekkevold, a senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, outlined the argument in an analysis for Foreign Policy. As "Hvylya" reports, Bekkevold argued that both factors are consistently underestimated in popular discussions about the risk of World War III.

On the structural side, Bekkevold noted that bipolar international power structures - such as the current U.S.-China configuration and the Cold War-era U.S.-Soviet rivalry - "tend to be more stable and less conflict-prone than multipolar systems of three or more great powers." Both World War I and World War II erupted in multipolar systems where shifting alliances and miscalculations could cascade into global conflict. The current two-superpower structure offers fewer such fault lines.

On the deterrence side, Bekkevold stated plainly that "nuclear weapons have further reduced the risk of large-scale great-power war." The Cold War demonstrated this dynamic: despite a global rivalry that spawned multiple proxy wars, the United States and the Soviet Union never engaged in direct military confrontation. The nuclear threshold imposed a ceiling on escalation that no pre-nuclear era possessed.

Together, these two factors create a double barrier. Even in the most dangerous current scenario - a potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan - there remains a possibility the war could stay limited if both sides managed escalation and kept fighting below the nuclear threshold. The historical record, Bekkevold argued, shows that world wars are extraordinarily rare events. Beyond World War I and World War II, only a handful of conflicts in all of recorded history - perhaps the Seven Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars - even qualify.

Also read: Strait of Hormuz: The Only Scenario That Will Force China to Intervene in Iran.