Russia continues to reject negotiation proposals not because of miscalculation or poor communication, but because Vladimir Putin fundamentally wants the war to continue. This is the core argument of Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most authoritative Western analysts of the conflict.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman laid out his assessment in a special episode of the Foreign Affairs podcast marking the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The full transcript of the conversation is available on our website.
"Putin wanted the war. He wanted it from the very outset, during the 2021 negotiations and the ultimatums he issued. He still wants the war. And he wants it more than everything currently being offered on the table," Kofman stated. The Trump administration, he said, came in optimistic about what it could offer Moscow - and discovered what many others have discovered before them. As we previously reported, Ukraine has already submitted its response to the US peace plan, yet Russia remains the outlier in narrowing political demands.
According to Kofman, Washington fails to appreciate the sunk cost fallacies that drive wars beyond the point of rational return. "When leaders get stuck in the pathology of a prolonged conventional war, sunk costs take on a life of their own," he explained. Putin has committed to this war, mobilized the state in its support, and will not end it unless he achieves certain minimal objectives - objectives he still believes are attainable, despite a widening gap between his perspective and reality on the ground.
Kofman added that the war has become easier for Putin to sustain than to stop, from a political-economic standpoint. Russian society and elites have adapted to wartime conditions, and reversing that adaptation would itself trigger a crisis. Putin also views Ukraine as a matter of personal legacy - caring about it "in a way that many Russian elites and the Russian public generally don't." The result is a leader who remains convinced he can outlast the West through sheer will, even as the military and economic fundamentals increasingly suggest otherwise.