In 2025, Putin placed two strategic bets - and lost both. That is the conclusion of American analyst Michael Kofman in a Foreign Affairs article published February 16, 2026.
As "Hvylya" reports, Kofman examines the logic behind each of Moscow's calculations and the reasons they fell apart.
The first bet: that sustained offensive pressure would eventually crack Ukraine's lines or produce a breakthrough. The second: that Russian diplomacy would turn Washington against Kyiv and eliminate critical American support. "In effect, both of Putin's bets proved wrong," Kofman writes. Data on surging Russian casualties confirms that the offensive pressure strategy has stalled rather than succeeded.
Washington did stop providing military support in the form of aid - but a new arrangement emerged in which European nations now fund the continuation of American support for Ukraine's war effort. Neither the battlefield nor the diplomatic front delivered Moscow the results it sought. The Trump administration's secret economic plan represents a continuation of pressure on Russia, not the diplomatic lifeline Moscow anticipated.
Kofman notes that Russia's military outlook, entering the war's fifth year, has not improved materially, while economic strain is mounting. "Time is increasingly not on Russia's side, no matter how Moscow tries to portray the situation," he concludes. Moscow cannot resolve "the fundamental mismatch between the military means it has and the political objectives it seeks to achieve."