The decline in Russia's oil revenues due to the loss of the Indian market is a positive signal, but Ukraine should not hope for the quick collapse of the Russian Federation. To defeat an existential enemy, Ukrainians must adopt its strategy of systemic pressure calculated over centuries and get rid of internal problems that once destroyed the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Political scientist and "Hvylya" editor-in-chief Yuriy Romanenko stated this in his video blog.
Analyzing the aggressor's economic situation, Romanenko noted a significant reduction in Russian oil imports by India.
"Indicators... of India, which bought more than 2 million barrels of shadow oil per day, are sharply reducing imports from Russia. In January, purchases fell by 35% compared to last year — to 1.3 million barrels. Forecasts for February-March are even worse: a drop to 800-900 thousand barrels. Indian refiners are buying non-sanctioned oil from everywhere: the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil, Guyana, the USA, even Argentina. They add that refineries are surprised by the ease with which they managed to find a replacement for Russian raw materials," the political scientist noted.
Romanenko noted that the situation for Moscow is complicated by the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which returned 800 thousand barrels per day to the legal market: "And although China remains the key player, buying 95% of Iranian and 60% of Russian exports, Beijing can either buy up the surplus for its strategic reserves (driving down the price) or refuse them. In the second case, Russia and Iran will have to reduce production, which will inevitably hit their war economies."
However, he warned against euphoria: "These are positive signals, but despite everything, one should not embellish reality and think that against this background Russia will inevitably collapse. I have always said that our projects, such as 'Yugorossiya' and so on — all of this must be a long game. But it must be secured with resources and calculated for decades to get the expected effect."
According to Romanenko, Ukraine should learn from Russia, which conducts primitive but systemic policy.
"In this regard, we should learn from Russia. Because Russia has been conducting, perhaps primitive, but systemic policy in our region for centuries. Its ability to purposefully hit one point century after century yielded results. Unfavorable conditions became favorable for it," the political scientist noted.
He reminded that Ukrainians themselves were once creators of the empire, so they should remember these practices: "Actually, we, as one of the key peoples who created the Russian Empire, should remember those practices that we ourselves implemented, and understand that in the game with Russia we need to play exactly the same way. Like the Russians after the unsuccessful war of 1632 with the Poles, when they were roughed up and forced to retreat. Or after the events of 1917–1920, when they lost part of the territories, but then won them back in the form of the Soviet Union after World War II."
Romanenko named the key obstacle to Ukraine's success not as an external enemy, but internal incompetence and elite corruption.
"The key in all this is the ability to overcome internal 'dumbassery' — let's call things by their proper names. Because there are 'dumbasses' who have done nothing, are capable of nothing, and who, besides high bonuses and redistribution [of resources] into their pockets, are not interested in society. And society simply does not make them toxic and does not deprive them of chances in the political game. Therefore, of course, we then successfully 'merge' and merge once again. And together we cry about what a great, creative, and kind people we are, but 'Putin is to blame' and the Russians once again outplayed everyone," he emphasized.
The expert drew a historical parallel with the decline of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which was destroyed not so much by external enemies as by its own elite.
"...Russians outplay only where there are internal conditions that allow outplaying. Poland was outplayed because the Polish elite sold itself left and right. All these their famous surnames, so-called families, who took 'money'. Who, based on their political interest, played along with the Russians in order, as they thought, to strengthen their position in the internal political game. As a result, they brought their country to ruin," the political scientist noted.
According to Romanenko, saving the country does not require the support of an absolute majority. An active and organized minority is enough.
"You need to understand: even if 20% of the population, 20% of the elite will soberly look at reality, will be appropriately organized and begin to push their line — even in this case the country will get a chance. You don't need to convince everyone to get a prosperous country in a few decades. For this, you just need to first unite those who look realistically at what is happening," Romanenko summarized.