In the negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine, the territorial issue—primarily the future of the Donetsk region—remains the key obstacle, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told journalist Sohrab Ahmari in a feature for UnHerd.
Vance said he received updates from American negotiators and noted a significant shift as the parties have begun to speak more candidly about the boundaries of potential compromises. "The breakthrough we’ve made is that all the issues are now on the table," he noted, adding that at the start of the process, participants often "hide behind fake issues" and fail to reveal their real positions.
According to Vance, Russia seeks territorial control over Donbas, while Ukraine views this as a severe security threat. Vance also claimed that the Ukrainian side acknowledges it could eventually lose the Donetsk region, though the timeline remains uncertain—"it could be 12 months from now, or it could be longer." He described the potential cession of territory as a "significant holdup" in negotiations and characterized it as a "terrible territorial concession."
Other issues still under discussion, according to Vance, include control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—specifically, whether there could be joint management or control by one side. He also mentioned humanitarian aspects: the fate of ethnic Russians remaining in Ukraine and ethnic Ukrainians in Russia, as well as the logistics for people wishing to move from occupied territories to Ukrainian-controlled areas.
Vance further stated that, in his assessment, Ukraine is significantly focused on postwar reconstruction, whereas Russia places less emphasis on the topic. He added that he views media leaks and public statements from both sides as standard negotiating tactics used to strengthen their respective positions.
"We’re going to try to solve it. We’re going to keep talking," Vance said. However, he emphasized that he cannot yet guarantee a peaceful outcome: "Sitting here today, I wouldn't say with confidence that we're going to get to a peace settlement." He noted that the chances of success or failure remain roughly equal.
Previously, Umerov and Witkoff summarized the results of three-day negotiations in Florida.