A popular theory holds that the real target of the Iran war is not Tehran but Beijing - that by neutralizing Iran as a Chinese client state, the US improves its strategic position ahead of a potential Taiwan conflict. Richard Haass, who spent two decades leading the Council on Foreign Relations, has three words for this theory: it is preposterous.

"Hvylya" quotes Haass from his conversation with historian Niall Ferguson on the Conversations with Coleman podcast, where he systematically dismantled the argument.

First, the munitions math. The United States has now depleted precision missile stocks in three major engagements. Every Patriot battery stationed in the Gulf is one not available for Taiwan's defense. "US forces are focused on the greater Middle East rather than on Europe or the Indo-Pacific," Haass said. "This entire war is at odds with even this administration's national security strategy."

Second, China's energy resilience. Beijing has been "quite disciplined about reducing its vulnerability to oil shutoffs," Haass argued, noting that China's strategic petroleum reserve is substantial. Global supply, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, remains abundant. The energy shock hits American consumers far harder than Chinese planners.

Third, diplomatic leverage. Haass predicted that at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, China will use the war as a bargaining chip. "The Chinese are going to take his measure to see what he is willing to put on the table in terms of the trade and economic relationship, and what they might be able to get geopolitically in exchange." The war, far from pressuring Beijing, gives it additional cards to play.

Ferguson added a more unsettling dimension. While nobody in the administration claims the war targets China, the real question is what Xi Jinping concludes on his own. "Is there anybody in Beijing saying there's no better time than now to make a move against Taiwan?" Ferguson asked. "What would the United States do under those circumstances?" The people responsible for the Indo-Pacific within the administration, he said, do not consider it advantageous to be burning through precision missile stocks in the Gulf.

Also read: Ominous Signal for Beijing: How Iran's Fall Frees US Military for a Major Pivot.