The Artemis II crew is speeding back to Earth after orbiting the moon, and the world is watching with wonder. But George Friedman sees something far less romantic in humanity's return to the lunar surface. The moon, in his analysis, is not a destination for dreamers. It is a future fortress - a place to shelter the satellites and sensors that wars now depend on.
As "Hvylya" reports, Friedman, the chairman of Geopolitical Futures, made this case in the latest episode of Talking Geopolitics. His reasoning starts with a problem: low Earth orbit, where most military satellites operate, is becoming too dangerous. It is crowded with debris, vulnerable to anti-satellite weapons, and will likely be the first battlefield in any great-power conflict.
"At a certain point in the not too distant future, low Earth orbit will be too dangerous," Friedman said. He argued that warfare offers three responses when a position becomes untenable: disperse, maneuver, or take cover. In orbit, dispersal makes satellites useless. Maneuvering burns fuel and disrupts sensing. "But given the nature of warfare, it is not difficult to take cover on the moon," Friedman argued. "That would be the place to take cover."
The moon also has practical advantages. Friedman noted that lunar tubes - natural underground tunnels - appear to be relatively temperate and potentially airtight, meaning they could be pressurized with oxygen extracted from lunar soil. These would provide natural shelters for both personnel and sensor equipment. "There is oxygen on the moon in the soil and you can free it," he said.
Both the United States and China understand this. "One of the reasons why the Chinese are looking at it," Friedman said, is that "if you want to conduct warfare from sensors such as satellites to see what is going on, the moon is a place where you might do that and survive." He added that the Russians used to pursue similar ambitions but appear to have stepped back.
The challenge is not just military. Friedman noted that living on the moon poses severe problems for the human body: no outdoor environment, minimal gravity, and complete dependence on artificial life support. "How do people respond to living on the moon, where there is no outdoors, where the gravity is minuscule, and the human body is built to live with Earth's gravity?" he asked. "These are all things that we do not know and we will try to find out." Artemis is designed to answer exactly those questions - not out of curiosity, but out of strategic necessity.
"Hvylya" earlier reported on why China's grip on critical minerals gives it leverage over Western military production.