President Trump had three options after 38 days of war with Iran, and historian Niall Ferguson believes he chose the weakest one - accepting a ceasefire without first deploying ground forces to retake the Strait of Hormuz.
Ferguson outlined the three paths in a Free Press interview: massive strikes on Iranian infrastructure, accepting a ceasefire via the Pakistani channel, or deploying special forces and Marines to seize control of the strait, as reported by "Hvylya".
The third option, Ferguson said, was almost certainly recommended by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Keane. "Not having done that puts the president in a weak position to negotiate a better deal in the strait," Ferguson said. "It's hard to get the Iranians to let go of what they currently hold purely by sending Vice President Vance and hoping that he, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner can charm the Iranians."
Ferguson described the missed window as a depreciating asset. "The longer the president waits to take that kind of action, the harder it will be to pull it off, because every day the economic pain mounts," he said. Although the US feels the pain later than other economies, it is coming - and in forms that will make the administration's domestic political position increasingly difficult.
The historian pointed to retired General Stan McChrystal's assessment that the war looks comfortable from 35,000 feet but changes entirely on the ground. "As soon as you're down on the ground, you are six foot high and so is your adversary. And we're not even on the ground yet," Ferguson said, quoting McChrystal.
A ground operation to control Hormuz would have extended the conflict into May and possibly beyond - likely exceeding Trump's self-imposed six-week timeline that he repeatedly signaled on Truth Social. Ferguson suggested that timeline constraint was the real reason the deployment never happened.