Iran's dramatic weakening has created the most favorable conditions for Arab-Israeli normalization in years. But the Palestinian question remains the unavoidable obstacle on the path forward, Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov have written in Foreign Affairs. The former Israeli intelligence chief and his co-author frame Iran's collapse as a necessary but insufficient precondition for a transformed Middle East.
If Tehran can no longer strike Israel at will, incite border violence, or fund Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iranian officials will struggle to derail diplomatic efforts, the strategists contend in their essay. These groups have helped sabotage every peace process since the 1993 Oslo accords, "Hvylya" reports. The removal of Iran as a spoiler fundamentally changes the calculus for Arab governments weighing normalization.
Yet Yadlin and Golov acknowledge that normalization deals would still have to address the Palestinian future. Arab countries continue to pay attention to this issue, and Yadlin and Golov do not pretend otherwise. They point to Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza as the most viable path forward. Demilitarize the strip, rehabilitate it, and hand governance to a technocratic Palestinian entity that will not threaten Israel - that is the sequence they endorse.
The plan demands something from both sides. The governing authority would need to deradicalize populations in Gaza and the West Bank, dismantle armed networks, end material incentives for violence, and stop public institutions from inciting attacks. Israel, meanwhile, would retain the freedom to conduct security operations in both territories even if they gain independence. Yadlin and Golov concede that such a lengthy and piecemeal process is unlikely to satisfy those demanding an immediate resolution.
Two additional conditions shape the timeline. Normalization requires a new Israeli government that Arab states see as a trustworthy partner - an implicit critique of the current political configuration in Jerusalem. It also requires sustained US-Israeli military pressure on Iran to ensure that Tehran's diminished state does not reverse. Without both, the window that the 2025-2026 campaign opened could close as quickly as it appeared.
"Hvylya" previously reported on why Beijing chose US markets over solidarity with Tehran during the conflict.