William Burns has said that despite instructing the People's Liberation Army to be ready for a successful invasion by 2027, Xi Jinping currently prefers what Burns called "a kind of boa constrictor approach where you squeeze the will to resist out of Taiwan" - chipping away at US commitment and allied conviction rather than launching a direct military assault.
Burns outlined his analysis in a conversation with Foreign Affairs on April 1, "Hvylya" reports.
The former CIA director said Ukraine's battlefield performance had sobered Xi and deepened his doubts about the Chinese military's capacity to achieve a successful invasion at acceptable cost. "I think he still probably has some lingering doubts about the capacity of the Chinese military to achieve at acceptable cost a successful all-out invasion of Taiwan," Burns said.
Xi's caution has been reinforced by the most sweeping purge of senior PLA ranks since the Cultural Revolution under Mao. Burns argued the purge creates tactical disarray that likely adds obstacles to any serious consideration of invasion in the near term. The strategic message, however, cuts the other way: Xi remains deeply committed to controlling Taiwan's choices during his lifetime.
Burns warned that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Beijing in mid-May would be a key moment. Xi, he predicted, will try to extract concessions on Taiwan policy and high-end technology, knowing that Trump may be looking for a deal he can portray as a success to change the narrative from the Iran war. "Chinese leadership will extract something for that, and Taiwan and technology are the two areas where they'll be most sharply focused," Burns said.
On the broader question of timing, Burns offered a counterintuitive assessment: for Taiwan, strategic patience may be the wisest course. "Kicking the can down the road may not win you a Nobel Peace Prize, but it's actually the best of the available choices," he said, describing a situation where half a century of deliberate ambiguity has kept the peace across the strait.
"Hvylya" earlier analyzed how Taiwan could trigger a great-power crisis if Washington and Beijing fail to negotiate.