The American war with Iran has become an unexpected financial lifeline for Moscow, delivering windfall oil revenues to Vladimir Putin at the very moment Russia's economy was beginning to buckle under wartime pressure.
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has laid out the case in The Atlantic, arguing that the Iran conflict has "materially and psychologically helped Russia and hurt Ukraine," "Hvylya" reports.
Even before Donald Trump lifted oil sanctions on Russia, oil prices were skyrocketing and filling Putin's war chest with billions of dollars. Kagan wrote that the unexpected windfall "gives Putin more time and capacity to continue destroying Ukraine's economic infrastructure and energy grid."
The damage cuts both ways. As Kagan noted, Persian Gulf states are now burning through U.S.-provided stocks of air-defense interceptors - drawing on the same limited supply that Ukraine depends on to defend its largest cities from Russian missile strikes. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf is one fewer available for Kyiv.
European analysts interpreted the move as confirmation that Washington no longer treats the trans-Atlantic relationship as a priority.
Trump's decision to lift the sanctions came over the opposition of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and the European Union - six allies and a bloc that together represent the core of the post-World War II order Washington built.
"Hvylya" previously reported on how U.S. missile stockpiles hit critical lows just two weeks into the Iran conflict.