The Trump administration waited four days after launching strikes on Iran before ordering U.S. diplomats in the region to evacuate - a delay that two former Biden national security officials called evidence of catastrophic planning failures.
Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper documented multiple signs the administration rushed into the conflict without accounting for predictable escalation dynamics, according to their Foreign Affairs analysis, "Hvylya" reports.
When asked why embassies had not been evacuated before strikes began, Trump told reporters that "it all happened very quickly" - suggesting that despite weeks of preparation, the administration had not anticipated Tehran's response. The scholars found this explanation alarming, given that Iran's pattern of widening conflicts by striking Gulf neighbors was well established.
It was equally predictable, the authors wrote, that Tehran would raise the global costs by targeting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and triggering an energy crisis. Yet Trump appeared blindsided by spiking oil prices, initially signaling the war would end soon before reversing course. He then asked U.S. allies, partners, and even China to help defend the strait.
The sequence illustrated a broader failure the scholars identified across Trump's second-term foreign policy: the administration acts first and strategizes later. The Iran war has become a major regional conflagration with cascading economic impacts, mounting U.S. losses, and the possible commitment of ground troops.
Despite the chaos, surveys by the Chicago Council from 2024 and 2025 showed large majorities of Americans still want the United States to have a strong global role - but one grounded in close cooperation with allies and exercised with strategic clarity. That appetite, the scholars argued, remains unmet.
Also read: how the Iran war dealt Egypt a triple economic blow by choking Suez Canal revenue.