Viktor Orban's Fidesz party trails the opposition by as much as 15 percentage points in reliable polls ahead of Hungary's April 12 election - a deficit that even the country's skewed electoral system may not overcome.

The gap persists despite an extraordinary level of foreign backing, "Hvylya" reports, citing Peter Kreko, a political scientist and director of the Political Capital Institute in Budapest. Both Washington and Moscow have openly signaled support for Orban, yet Hungarian voters appear far more concerned about inflation, corruption, and healthcare than the geopolitical battles their prime minister talks up.

After 16 years in power, Orban's campaign lacks domestic achievements to showcase. It is built almost entirely around foreign policy narratives, particularly the portrayal of Ukraine as an existential threat. Government slogans suggest Kyiv seeks to "colonize" Hungary - a claim that sits awkwardly alongside years of governmental messaging about Ukraine being a failed state. Pro-government media routinely warn of imminent threats, with headlines claiming Ukraine could "attack Hungary at any time."

Foreign support, Kreko argues, acts as a double-edged sword. It reinforces Orban's image as a global player but risks alienating voters wary of external interference. The Iran war has proved particularly controversial in Hungary, exposing tensions within the government over its self-proclaimed "pro-peace" stance. Vance's expected visit comes at a sensitive moment - anything short of a direct appearance by Trump may prove insufficient to sway undecided voters.

Even Orban's most powerful backers appear to doubt his prospects. Reporting by the Washington Post suggested Russian intelligence considered drastic measures to tilt the vote precisely because they feared he might lose. Trump, for his part, may be reluctant to spend political capital promoting a candidate who looks set for defeat. In the final two weeks, the campaign could take darker turns. Kreko points to the risk of leaked compromising material targeting opposition leader Peter Magyar, voter intimidation, and stepped-up disinformation - tactics that have already surfaced in smaller doses throughout the race.

"Hvylya" also reported on how Europe continues to foreclose energy options that could reduce its vulnerability to geopolitical pressure.