Iran cannot defend against American and Israeli airstrikes, nor can it inflict significant direct damage on Israel. But Tehran has settled on a different kind of warfare - one that targets Washington's staying power rather than its military hardware. The result is a two-dimensional attrition campaign that the United States has yet to find an effective counter for.
Writing in Foreign Affairs, James F. Jeffrey - a former U.S. diplomat who served in seven administrations - describes Iran's strategy as a double squeeze, "Hvylya" reports. The first prong aims to "exhaust its opponents' weapons stocks, using drones and missiles to wear down U.S. and allied air defense systems." The second wages "a war of pain" aimed at Washington's Gulf partners and the global economy.
The economic pressure extends well beyond the Middle East. By halting most oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, Tehran has driven up fuel prices across Europe and Asia. Jeffrey notes that "production capabilities, economic costs, public morale and political mood, and broader international concerns limit the military options a state can use" - a reality both the United States and Russia now confront.
The weapons-depletion problem carries its own strategic risk. Washington needs to resolve the Iran conflict without draining its precision missile stocks or tying down forces indefinitely, Jeffrey warns, because it must "improve its chances of deterring China in the Taiwan Strait." Every Tomahawk fired at Iranian targets is one fewer available for a potential Pacific contingency.
Russia faces an eerily similar bind in Ukraine. Moscow has stayed in that fight largely because China purchases its oil and provides high-tech supplies for weapons production. But this dependency forces Russia to heed Beijing's concerns - including its insistence that Moscow avoid nuclear threats. Washington, too, must keep allies from drifting away. If the United States disregards them entirely, Jeffrey warns, partner nations "could decide to ban American military bases on their territory or pull back from other military cooperation in the region."