The United States launched its bombing campaign against Iran in late February expecting a quick, decisive outcome - much like the military operation that removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. Instead, Tehran's fierce response has produced a war of attrition and a stalemate that mirrors Russia's grinding conflict in Ukraine far more than Washington's swift intervention in Caracas.

James F. Jeffrey, a former senior diplomat who served in seven U.S. administrations, has laid out the case in Foreign Affairs that America now faces a strategic trap remarkably similar to Moscow's, "Hvylya" reports. Jeffrey, who served as Special Representative for Syria Engagement from 2018 to 2020, warns that the United States "does not have an obvious way to achieve a decisive victory and risks getting mired in an endless war."

Trump and his advisers reasoned that acting against Iran sooner was better than later. Washington had already built up forces in the region, and the Iranian regime faced an emboldened Israel and rising domestic unrest - conditions that made it weaker than it had been in decades. But the assumption that Tehran would buckle quickly proved wrong. Iran has continued firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf states while halting most oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf.

Jeffrey argues that Trump's proposed 15-point peace plan suggests Washington already recognizes the need for an off-ramp. To avoid repeating Russia's mistakes, the United States "will likely have to accept a compromise result in Iran," he writes. That could mean a cease-fire in exchange for permanent limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment, removal of its highly enriched uranium, and caps on its ballistic missile program.

The parallel with Ukraine cuts deep. After four years of fighting at enormous human, economic, and diplomatic cost, Russia has made little progress on the ground and has failed to break Ukrainian resolve. Jeffrey warns that the Iran war "is increasingly unpopular among Congress, the American public, and U.S. allies" - but the Trump administration appears determined to demonstrate toughness, and Israel will pressure Washington to stay the course.

Earlier, "Hvylya" reported on how Gulf states have begun reassessing their military ties with Washington as the Iran war erodes trust.