The U.S. war against Iran is pulling American resources and attention away from three higher-priority threats - the Russian conquest of Ukraine, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and North Korean adventurism - at precisely the wrong moment, two Columbia University defense scholars have argued.
Richard Betts and Stephen Biddle made the case in a Foreign Affairs article, as "Hvylya" reports. For Israel, periodic military operations against Iran might be worth the cost if Tehran truly threatens the country's survival, the authors acknowledge. "The stakes for the United States, however, are not so high," they write.
The diversion is already producing tangible consequences. Trump's "jarring suspension of sanctions on Russia in order to increase oil supplies to the world market" is the most immediate example. The professors warn that continued American distraction "invites China to consider whether it has a window of opportunity against its renegade province," while North Korea's regime "is not only as wild and crazy as Tehran's but also already has nuclear weapons."
The material costs compound the strategic misdirection. In just its first weeks, the war cost billions in direct expenditure, reduced support for Ukraine, and "put dangerous strains on inventories of the most advanced U.S. weapons," Betts and Biddle note. The conflict also shocked the global economy.
The scholars argue the war "yoked U.S. national interests to Israel's, which differ in kind and degree" - binding Washington to a regional conflict while competitors in Europe and Asia seize the moment.
Also read: "Hvylya" examined how the transatlantic rift opens a dangerous window for Putin in the Baltics.