Countries considering closer ties with Beijing are getting a real-time lesson in what a Chinese partnership actually looks like. As Iran fights a war against the US and Israel, its supposed friend in Beijing has done almost nothing to help - and that, according to George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, is the point.
Friedman explored the broader implications of Beijing's restraint in a Geopolitical Futures podcast, as "Hvylya" reports.
"They will see China as a very rational country making self-interest most important," Friedman said. He pushed back against the idea that this represents a failure or betrayal. Nations do what is in their best interest - that is the only reliable constant in international relations, he argued.
The illusion of ironclad alliances, Friedman suggested, is particularly strong in Europe, where the expectation is that partnerships must be unconditional. But that is not how great powers operate. "The idea that this is a marriage to which an alliance is made up of people committed to each other forever, that is an irrational view of it," he said.
China's restraint on Iran is not purely about will - it is also about capability. Beijing cannot easily project military force to the Middle East, and the shipping routes are closed. But Friedman emphasized that even without those constraints, the answer would be the same. The economic accommodation with Washington is simply more valuable than anything Tehran can offer.
"Other people will have to look at Chinese interest rather than talk about these immortal, unending obligations," Friedman said. China's last military engagement far from its borders was its support for Vietnam decades ago. Since then, Beijing has consistently avoided projecting force beyond its immediate neighborhood.
A former Obama administration official has also proposed a diplomatic off-ramp for the United States in its Iran campaign.