For decades, the world revolved around US-Soviet tension - nuclear standoffs, proxy wars, a divided Europe. That era is over, and the geopolitical system that replaces it has a different center of gravity entirely, according to George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
He laid out his argument in a Geopolitical Futures podcast, "Hvylya" reports.
"Russia has lost its Central Asia. It has lost the South Caucasus. It has lost the Baltics," Friedman said. "It is a fragment of what it was. It tried to reclaim it in Ukraine and after over three years, I'll say, has failed to regain it."
Russia's economy is in ruins compared to its competitors, and its military has proved ineffective in Ukraine. Meanwhile, China commands a massive economy and maintains a military force that Friedman considers more significant than Russia's. The relationship between Washington and Beijing now matters more to both countries than anything involving Moscow.
Friedman also noted that China and Russia are not the natural allies they are often portrayed as. Even during the Cold War, when both were communist states, battles were fought along the Ussuri River. Today, China has been making informal claims on eastern Russia around Vladivostok - adding another layer of tension on Russia's border.
"The old geopolitical order is obsolete," Friedman said. "Russia is not the key issue. And this is one of the things that Trump has made a point of saying - this is not our key issue. Our key issue is China and the possibility of reaching accommodation."
Kofman earlier detailed how Russia's military campaign fell short of its goals, naming Moscow's biggest military setbacks of 2025.