China is the world's largest buyer of Persian Gulf energy, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran has put that supply line in jeopardy. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Beijing is staring at a ticking clock: its roughly one billion barrels of oil reserves cover about three months of demand.
The scale of this vulnerability was the focus of George Friedman's latest Geopolitical Futures podcast, "Hvylya" reports.
The problem goes beyond crude oil. Liquefied natural gas, a critical input for plastics manufacturing and other industrial processes, faces the same supply disruption. "Particularly with liquid natural gas, which is a component of the economy, part of making plastics and all these things - it would put a tremendous drag on them," Friedman said.
While rising oil prices affect every economy, Friedman noted that China is more exposed than most. The United States faces its own affordability pressures, an issue that has dogged the Trump administration in polling. But Washington has domestic production to fall back on. China does not. A prolonged closure of the strait would directly limit Chinese economic growth at a time when the economy is already struggling with bank failures and unemployment.
"The Chinese have clearly decided they would rather not alienate the United States even at the cost of having that oil," Friedman said. Beijing calculates that access to the American consumer market - where it can actually sell the goods it manufactures - matters more than securing the energy to make them, if it has to choose between the two.
"Hvylya" also covered how Trump's own policy choices have exposed Washington's most dangerous vulnerability in the Iran campaign.