The Iran war dominates the headlines, but the event that will leave the deeper mark on global geopolitics is happening largely out of sight. The Trump-Xi summit, now rescheduled for April, could produce an accommodation between the world's two largest economies - and George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, believes that would change everything.
Friedman made this case in his latest podcast for Geopolitical Futures, as "Hvylya" reports.
The economic logic is hard to ignore. The United States accounts for one quarter of the world's economy. China accounts for slightly less. "China and the United States working together in any extent is one half of the world's economy coming together," Friedman said. "And this has certain advantages for the Chinese and certain advantages for the Americans. In some sense it makes each of them more powerful."
Friedman does not expect an alliance. The two countries will not trust each other, send love letters, or coordinate foreign policy. But they share a core economic interest: China needs the American market to sell its goods, and the United States needs affordable Chinese imports to keep consumer prices down. That mutual dependency, Friedman argued, is enough to build a working arrangement on.
The summit will also have to address the military dimension - particularly Taiwan, the first island chain, and naval transparency measures like pre-notification of military exercises. Friedman sees these as solvable problems once the economic framework is in place.
"Although the Iran war is significant, in the long run this evolution, if it takes place - and I think it will - fundamentally transforms the global geopolitical system," Friedman said.
Meanwhile, Trump has claimed that Tehran agreed to give up its nuclear weapons as Washington pivots to peace talks.