The military standoff over Taiwan has been the single biggest obstacle to a US-China deal for years. George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, believes it can be resolved - and the model he has in mind borrows from an unlikely precedent.
In a recent Geopolitical Futures podcast, Friedman detailed his proposed formula, as "Hvylya" reports.
For China, Taiwan is not primarily about national symbolism. It sits at the center of the first island chain - Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines - that could block Chinese access to the Pacific. "That access to the Pacific is their access to the world," Friedman said. "So they need to neutralize Taiwan in the sense of it not being a threat to them."
Friedman's solution: the United States agrees that Taiwan is formally part of China but remains a "profoundly autonomous" zone. Washington limits weapons sales to Taiwan to just enough to deter a Chinese invasion, removing the island as a strategic blocking tool. In return, China gets unobstructed access to the Pacific and drops its most aggressive posture.
"The Hong Kong on steroids, if you will, would be the model that would be followed," Friedman said. He acknowledged the obvious objection - China reneged on Hong Kong's autonomy. But the Taiwan situation carries real consequences that Hong Kong never did. "If the Chinese were to violate this, unlike the British in Hong Kong, we have things we can do that the Chinese really wouldn't like - like cut off their exports to the United States."
Friedman also pointed to shifting politics inside Taiwan itself, where the opposition Kuomintang party - traditionally favoring closer ties with Beijing - has been gaining strength. Taiwan's own microchip industry gives it leverage as a trading partner, not just a military flashpoint.
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