The Trump administration has systematically destroyed its own ability to negotiate a diplomatic settlement with Iran and failed to achieve military victory, two Columbia University defense scholars have argued. Richard Betts and Stephen Biddle say Washington now faces an adversary with both the motivation and residual capability to cause serious harm - and no viable off-ramp.
The professors outline how the administration wrecked its own negotiating position in a Foreign Affairs article, "Hvylya" reports. A verifiable deal could in principle resolve the standoff if Iran found the terms attractive enough. "But killing its negotiating partners and reducing U.S. bargaining credibility by welching on an earlier deal and launching two surprise attacks amid ongoing talks" is not the approach to achieve one, they argue.
The diplomatic damage runs deep. There already was a deal - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015 - "with which Iran was complying until Trump trashed it in 2017," the authors note. The United States then attacked Iran by surprise twice, in June 2025 and February 2026, while negotiations were underway. The second operation included the deliberate killing of Iran's government leadership. "These precedents provide Tehran no reason to take American diplomacy seriously," Betts and Biddle write.
Faced with these results, Trump "can simply declare victory and walk away, leaving the mowing option on the table," the scholars observe. But the costs already inflicted exceed the benefits. "Launching a preventive war was a bad decision in the first place," they conclude. "It undercut whatever claims to American moral leadership in the world that had remained under Trump."
The war left the Iranian people "holding the bag when Trump's promises that 'help is on its way' proved hollow" - and the United States stuck managing a conflict with no clear endgame.
Also read: "Hvylya" traced how the Hegseth era threatens two centuries of American military neutrality.