The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, could become one of the most dangerous stretches of water for any navy if Iranian unmanned surface vessels are deployed against American warships in the narrow passage.
Military analysts say Iran has studied Ukraine's successful use of naval drones against the Russian Black Sea Fleet. According to The Wall Street Journal, Tehran is preparing to apply similar tactics in the Persian Gulf, "Hvylya" reports.
Ukraine, whose conventional navy was largely destroyed early in the war, turned to unmanned surface vessels and managed to decimate the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing Moscow's warships out of the western Black Sea entirely. The approach cleared shipping lanes to Odesa and demonstrated that small, cheap drones could neutralize far more expensive warships.
Iran's naval drones are not yet as advanced as Ukraine's — they lack Starlink-enabled navigation and other sophisticated features, according to military experts. But the Strait of Hormuz at its narrowest is roughly 30 miles across, which happens to match the maximum range of fiber-optic wire guidance systems. In such a confined waterway, even less sophisticated unmanned vessels could prove deadly to both warships and oil tankers.
"If we are going to conduct operations in Hormuz, we are going to need very intense electronic-warfare coverage over the area," said Michael Knights of Horizon Engage. He argued that concentrating the world's most capable electronic-warfare resources on a 30-by-30-mile zone could make FPV drone attacks more difficult — but Ukrainian experts are unconvinced.
"No armed forces are prepared for this challenge, not the Americans and not the Europeans," said former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. "Not technically, not mentally and not from experience."
"Hvylya" previously analyzed how Iran's energy weapon marked a new phase in great-power competition.