For more than three decades, the United States maintained a security bargain with Gulf monarchies: alignment with Washington on regional security in exchange for American military protection. The current war with Iran has put that bargain under more strain than at any point since it was struck - and the consequences may outlast the fighting.
As "Hvylya" reports, citing a Foreign Affairs analysis by Narges Bajoghli of Johns Hopkins SAIS, Iran has spent decades trying to drive a wedge between the United States and its Gulf partners. The current war is finally making that strategy pay off.
The problem is visible in where American air defenses are deployed. US and Israeli systems have been positioned primarily to protect Israel, while Gulf states have watched their economic infrastructure sustain Iranian strikes without equivalent protection. Bajoghli wrote that the message received across Gulf capitals is clear: Washington will prioritize Israeli security over Gulf security when forced to choose.
According to the analysis, the cracks began forming before this war. In 2019, Washington failed to protect Saudi Arabia against Iranian strikes on its oil facilities. In 2025, the United States did not prevent Israel from striking Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar. Bajoghli contended that each episode eroded confidence in the fundamental bargain. Iran had been warning Gulf publics about US unreliability for years, but until now the argument had limited traction.
Gulf states are not pro-Iranian - they remain frightened of Tehran and angry about attacks on their infrastructure. But for the first time in a generation, they are questioning the value of alignment with Washington. That doubt, Bajoghli argued, is precisely what Tehran has worked toward. A Gulf that no longer fully trusts American security guarantees is less willing to host bases, share intelligence, or finance US military operations.
"Hvylya" previously analyzed what global conflicts foreshadow for the alliances of dozens of states.