Russia's ambitious Sahel project, built on coups, mercenaries and resources-for-security deals, has started to fray. According to a new analysis by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, published in Foreign Affairs, the Kremlin's expansion into Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is "on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely."

As "Hvylya" reports, the authors trace Moscow's Sahel strategy back to a broader pattern of opportunistic interventions between 2014 and 2019 - in Ukraine, Syria, the Central African Republic and Libya. The Kremlin capitalized on popular frustration with corrupt civilian governments and a backlash against France, the former colonial power, to support military coups and install itself as the new security patron.

But the model has hit its limits. An initial deployment of 1,000 Wagner mercenaries in Mali has grown to roughly 2,500 fighters - still far too small to tackle the scale of jihadi and insurgent threats across the region. Russian forces have suffered a string of bloody setbacks, including a deadly ambush in the Tuareg town of Tinzaouaten in northern Mali in the summer of 2024 that killed 46 Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, Turkey, China and the United Arab Emirates have moved into the security vacuum with drone sales, infrastructure investments and intelligence cooperation - offering Sahelian rulers alternatives they consider more reliable and more affordable. Wehrey and Weiss argue that Russia's result "increasingly resembles a grinding quagmire with few strategic returns beyond the limited spoils gleaned from the region's extractive industries."

The Carnegie scholars warn that Moscow's staying power is not exhausted and that the Kremlin has shown tenacity in similar situations elsewhere, particularly in the Central African Republic. But they conclude that the political costs of Russia's failure to deliver on its core promise - restoring stability and shielding regimes from internal challenges - are still unfolding across the continent.

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