The United States is at war with Iran - and simultaneously easing sanctions on Iranian oil to keep global energy prices from spiraling further. The contradiction captures Washington's central weakness in the conflict: the war it chose to fight threatens the economic stability it needs to sustain.
Ilan Goldenberg, who served as Iran Team Chief at the Pentagon under Obama and later advised Vice President Kamala Harris, identified this vulnerability as a defining feature of the conflict in a new analysis for Foreign Affairs, "Hvylya" reports.
Tehran has noticed. Goldenberg noted that the Iranian leadership understands exactly how sensitive Washington is to energy price swings - and the administration's own behavior confirms it. Easing sanctions on Iranian oil while simultaneously bombing the country signals desperation, not strength. For Iran, this creates a clear strategic incentive to keep targeting energy infrastructure and maritime chokepoints.
The dynamic has already played out in practice. Tehran's retaliatory strike on Qatar's energy infrastructure after Israeli attacks on South Pars demonstrated that Iran does not need to win a conventional military contest. It only needs to show that U.S. strikes cannot guarantee the free flow of energy through the Gulf - and a single successful hit is enough to rattle global markets.
The war's costs extend well beyond the Middle East, Goldenberg warned. Every dollar and every asset committed to containing Iran is one less available for the strategic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. Gulf allies who never sought this conflict are reassessing their security arrangements with Washington. The administration is undermining American credibility on multiple fronts simultaneously - and the contradiction embedded in its own sanctions policy is the clearest proof.
Also read: 90% of Seaborne Oil Passes Through Eight Chokepoints - and Most Have No Backup Plan.