As the air campaign against Iran grinds into its fourth week without decisive results, one escalation option has moved from theoretical to actively discussed: seizing Kharg Island, the small but critical hub in the Persian Gulf through which roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports flow. President Trump and several of his allies have publicly floated the idea.
But the operation would be a trap, not a breakthrough, argues Ilan Goldenberg, a former senior Pentagon official, in an analysis published by Foreign Affairs. "Hvylya" reports on the key arguments.
U.S. and Israeli forces have already conducted strikes against military defenses on the island, and unlike an inland operation, an amphibious or airborne assault on Kharg is logistically feasible - the island is not deep inside Iran. But the downsides are substantial. The operation would require taking a well-fortified territory one-third the size of Manhattan. U.S. forces could suffer significant casualties. And fighting on the island could severely damage Iran's oil infrastructure, driving global prices even higher - precisely the outcome Washington has been trying to avoid.
More critically, Goldenberg questioned what taking Kharg would actually achieve. The theory is that economic pressure would force Tehran to change behavior or accept U.S. terms. But "the regime has shown a willingness to absorb severe economic pain, as it has demonstrated for years after being on the receiving end of U.S. sanctions," he wrote. Iran would more likely respond by escalating attacks on regional energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Recent events support that assessment. After Israeli strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, Tehran retaliated by targeting Qatar's liquefied natural gas infrastructure, knocking out 17 percent of its production capacity for three to five years. An assault on Kharg, Goldenberg warned, would likely trigger an even more aggressive response of this kind - turning a limited operation into a region-wide energy war.
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