Iran has bet its survival on a single chokepoint. As the U.S.-led war enters its fourth week, Tehran is refusing all diplomatic overtures and instead escalating attacks on neighboring states, banking on the economic damage from a largely closed Strait of Hormuz to force Washington into retreat, "Hvylya" reports, citing the Washington Post.
The strategy is straightforward: make the war unaffordable. By partially shutting the strait - through which roughly one-fifth of the world's fuel shipments transit - Iran is seeking to "make this aggression super expensive for the aggressors," an Iranian diplomat told the Post. "We are alone against the biggest military superpower of the history," he said.
Iran's leaders view their grip on the strait as a short-term victory, according to a senior Arab official and European diplomats. One European diplomat based in the Persian Gulf put it bluntly: "As long as the regime is there, they can create terror in the region, they terrorize international markets with the oil and gas prices. Yes, that's what winning is for them."
The Pentagon has responded by ramping up airstrikes and deploying additional attack helicopters to the area around the chokepoint, aiming to clear Iranian positions so warships can escort tankers through. President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour deadline on Saturday demanding Iran reopen the waterway, threatening to "obliterate" the country's power plants. The Treasury Department also moved to ease markets by lifting sanctions on Iranian crude already loaded onto vessels.
Yet the economic fallout so far has been "moderate" by one European diplomat's assessment - not severe enough to push Washington toward talks, but enough to cause concern. Alan Eyre, a fellow at the Middle East Institute and former State Department official focused on Iran, said Tehran believes it can still ratchet up pressure. "Iran still hasn't made their point, they are still trying to up the costs," he said.
The conflict has already expanded well beyond Iranian borders. After a U.S. strike on the South Pars gas field, Iran retaliated with strikes on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, causing billions of dollars in damage to a Qatari natural gas facility. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has given the U.S. a problem it never planned for.
Also read: "Scorched Earth": What Iran Privately Told Saudi Arabia Before Launching Gulf Attacks.