A growing number of Chinese decision-makers believe that the future may be less promising than they once thought - and that China might already be at, or near, the peak of its relative power. This "now or never" mentality closely mirrors the thinking that contributed to Germany's willingness to risk war in 1914.

Odd Arne Westad, a Yale professor of history and global affairs, has drawn this parallel in a new Foreign Affairs essay adapted from his forthcoming book, "Hvylya" reports. The logic is straightforward: if a rising power believes its trajectory has peaked, it may conclude that acting now - while it still has leverage - is preferable to waiting and growing weaker.

"Not all CCP decision-makers think this way, but there is certainly talk in Beijing about China now being at the peak of its relative economic influence - and therefore of its opportunity to rearrange its region to its advantage," Westad wrote.

Several factors feed this anxiety. China's period of hypergrowth ended abruptly. A demographic crisis will shrink the population by at least 200 million by 2050. The property market stalled in 2021 and left unfinished high-rises decaying across the countryside. High levels of debt and slowing growth have created uncertainty that the government cannot easily address.

The Belt and Road Initiative, once a symbol of China's global ambitions, now faces criticism at home. Citizens suspect that foreign ventures have served national prestige more than corporate profitability. Questions about waste, corruption, poor work quality, and low returns have become harder to suppress - even in a dictatorship.

Westad warned that US attempts to stifle China's growth only deepen the conviction that Washington seeks containment. "If ordinary Chinese citizens become convinced that the US goal is to prevent their economy from growing, the chances of spillover from resentment to some form of military action increase dramatically," the historian wrote.

Previously, "Hvylya" examined why Trump's unprepared approach to summitry with Xi has puzzled analysts and unsettled Beijing.